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Article 1 · S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100

Is there a best time to buy a 3x ETF?

Buying a 3x on any given day barely raised the median versus the 2x and increased how often you lose money.

Read the full article on Substack (in Spanish)

An educational tool, not investment advice. Historical figures, computed with the Modeler's engine; past performance does not guarantee future results.

If I buy an S&P 500 3x on any given day, how often do I lose?

28%of windows, the 3x loses money
15.2%median annual return of the 3x
11.4%the index's (1x)
Years you hold it → of windows, the 3x loses money
Annual return per window (p5, p25, p50, p75, p95)

Every day since 1960 is a purchase; the windows overlap, so there are far fewer independent ones.

How it's computed

16,021 windows since Jan 4, 1960, only 22 independent. Data through Aug 31, 2026.

Main figure: matches the article From the article: S&P 500 over 3 years: 3x median 15.3% (1x 11.4%) and a loss in 28% of windows. The Modeler gives the same figure (28%).

Open it in the Modeler

What if the 3x is TQQQ, on the Nasdaq-100?

30.2%median annual return of the 3x
26%of windows, the 3x loses money
16.1%the index's median (1x)
Years you hold it → median annual return of the 3x
Annual return per window (p5, p25, p50, p75, p95)

The Nasdaq-100 starts in 1985, after its boom: it's a survivor index.

How it's computed

9,552 windows since Oct 2, 1985, only 13 independent. Data through Aug 31, 2026.

Main figure: differs from the article From the article: Nasdaq-100 over 3 years: 3x median 30.4% (1x 16.1%) and a loss in 26% of windows. The Modeler gives 30.2% with data through Aug 31, 2026 and whole months.

Open it in the Modeler

Do I earn more if I buy the 3x after a drop of more than 20%?

+9.0 points a yearof median 3-year growth versus all other days (S&P 500)

Buying the S&P 500 3x with the index more than 20% below its high gave more median growth over three years; on the Nasdaq-100 the effect doesn't hold up.

Figure from the article Figure from the article. The Modeler doesn't yet have a control to make the purchase depend on the drop from the high.

How much leverage maximizes long-term growth?

2.32xL* for the S&P 500 (90% interval: 1.10–3.81)
2.09xL* for the Nasdaq-100 (0.96–3.67)

The estimated Kelly leverage is below 3, but with an interval so wide it doesn't rule out the 3x.

Figure from the article Figure from the article. The Modeler doesn't yet estimate L* with its interval.