Skip to content
BiVelio joins the NVIDIA Inception Program NVIDIA Inception Program BiVelio is part of the ElevenLabs Grants Program ElevenLabs Grants

Article 4 · VIX and inverse ETFs

Can you collect the decay of UVXY and SQQQ?

The decay of VIX products and inverse ETFs paid on average, in exchange for huge drawdowns.

Read the full article on Substack (in Spanish)

An educational tool, not investment advice. Historical figures, computed with the Modeler's engine; past performance does not guarantee future results.

How much did being half short VIX futures, like SVXY, return?

12.0%a year, half short the VIX
−71.2%its worst drawdown from a peak
11.1%a year for the S&P 500 (1x)
When to be short → a year, half short the VIX
Wealth of $1 invested (log scale)

The −0.5x is synthetic until 2018 and the real SVXY after that; the rest of the capital sits in T-bills.

How it's computed

Real history from January 2006 to July 2026, in whole months. Data through Jul 31, 2026.

Main figure: differs from the article From the article: A −0.5x on the short VIX futures index grew 12.5% a year from Dec 21, 2005 to Sep 25, 2026, with a maximum drawdown of −71.2%. The Modeler gives 12.0% with data through Jul 31, 2026 and whole months.

Open it in the Modeler

What happened to people who bought SQQQ and held it?

−52.8%a year with SQQQ
< $0.01left of every $1,000
42.3%a year with TQQQ (+3x)
Year you buy → a year with SQQQ
Wealth of $1 invested (log scale)

SQQQ is the real ETF (−3x on the Nasdaq-100); the control picks the year you buy.

How it's computed

Real history from February 2010 to July 2026, in whole months. Data through Jul 31, 2026.

Main figure: differs from the article From the article: SQQQ, the Nasdaq-100 −3x, lost 53.0% a year from 2010 to 2026. The Modeler gives −52.8% with data through Jul 31, 2026 and whole months.

Open it in the Modeler