Article 6 · Shorting the −3x

Does shorting SQQQ after rallies pay?

Shorting the −3x beat cash because it was long equities, not because of decay, and sometimes it wiped out the account.

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An educational tool, not investment advice. Historical figures, computed with the Modeler's engine; past performance does not guarantee future results.

If I short the −3x and hold it, do I earn more than by buying the +3x?

32%median gain of the short

21%that of the long +3x

12%of windows, the short is wiped out

4%1 month

9%3 months

17%6 months

32%1 year

51%2 years

How long you hold it → median gain of the short

Total gain over the window (p5, p25, p50, p75, p95)

Every session since 1928 is a short sale of the S&P 500 −3x for all the capital; the −100% bar is ruin.

How it's computed

24,530 windows since Jan 3, 1928, only 98 independent. Data through Aug 31, 2026.

Main figure: matches the article From the article: S&P 500 since 1928, over one year: the short's median (32%) beats the +3x's (21%); 12% of windows end in ruin. The Modeler gives the same figure (32%).

Open it in the Modeler

Does shorting the −3x after a rally beat leaving the money in T-bills?

+5.8points of growth a year over T-bills

9.5%a year, the rule

−78.5%the rule's worst drawdown

+5.9+2%

+5.8+3%

+3.7+5%

−0.2+8%

Minimum rally → points of growth a year over T-bills

Wealth of $1 invested (log scale)

The rule shorts the −3x when the index has risen over 21 sessions and is above its 200-day average, and holds it for 21 sessions.

How it's computed

Real history from October 1928 to July 2026, in whole months. Data through Jul 31, 2026.

Main figure: differs from the article From the article: The best S&P 500 rule since 1928 (+3% in 21 sessions, above the average, 21 sessions) has beaten cash by +5.7 points a year. The Modeler gives +5.8 with data through Jul 31, 2026 and whole months.

Open it in the Modeler